Multi-system European Seasonal Forecast – Winter 2022/2023 (Technical maps and explanation)


Ensemble mean anomalies
The charts display the averages of the standardized ensemble mean anomalies. For each component model, ensemble mean anomalies are computed with respect to the corresponding model climate. These are then re-scaled so that the total variance on the monthly time scale of each model is equal to the mean of the variances of all the models contributing to the combination. The variance standardization is based on the hindcast period common to those models.

For products issued from November 2018, the reference (hindcast) period for all providers is 1993-2016.  In the case of each provider, data is from the current version of the operational seasonal forecast system.

Individual centres’ contributions to the C3S multi-system are combined so that each one weighs the same, regardless of whether they come from a single forecasting system or a multi-model (ECCC).

Produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, using Copernicus data. The forecasts from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) are in-kind contributions to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The presentation of country boundaries on the map does not imply any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.

The maps are provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service

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